{"id":204862,"date":"2024-11-11T13:39:19","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T18:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gardenandgun.com\/?p=204862"},"modified":"2024-11-14T06:50:41","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T11:50:41","slug":"duck-season-preview-what-the-latest-waterfowl-survey-numbers-mean-for-southern-duck-hunters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gardenandgun.com\/articles\/duck-season-preview-what-the-latest-waterfowl-survey-numbers-mean-for-southern-duck-hunters","title":{"rendered":"Duck Season Preview: What the Latest Waterfowl Survey Numbers Mean for Southern Duck Hunters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>With the September teal season and the October \u201cshort season\u201d behind them, waterfowlers in the South are looking forward to the main event\u2014the (hopefully) big migration flights of November, December, and January. Since the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced the findings of the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in late summer, the South has experienced back-to-back-to-back hurricanes, horrific flooding, persistent drought in some areas, and the complete implosion of University of North Carolina football. Add to the wild weather the early predictions of a wet, warm winter for the region, and it\u2019s a head-scratcher what current waterfowl populations might mean for Southern hunters.<\/p>\n\n\n<!-- Promo shortcode start --><div id=\"nlf-1c\" class=\"gg-promo topic-due-south\"><div class=\"grid\"><div class=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gardenandgun.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/promos\/due-south-tall.jpg\" class=\"tall\" alt=\"Bermuda shoreline\"><\/div><div class=\"right\"><form id=\"nlf-1\" method=\"post\" class=\"form\" action=\"https:\/\/gardenandgun.com\/newsletters\/\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"gg_form_submit\" value=\"nlf-1\"><div class=\"hed\">Get Due South<\/div><div class=\"dek\">Our newsletter with Southern destinations and inspiration for your next trip<\/div><div class=\"action two-items\"><div class=\"input-left\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"email\" class=\"email-input\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"you@example.com\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"group_id\" value=\"106195444\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"shortcode_form\" value=\"nlf-1\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"subscription_47929\" value=\"on\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"prev_page_id\" value=\"204862\"><\/div><div class=\"gform_footer\"><div style=\"display:none;\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"nl-nov-st\" id=\"nl-nov-st1\" value=\"\" autocomplete=\"off\" tabindex=\"-1\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"nl-nov-b\" value=\"\" autocomplete=\"off\" tabindex=\"-1\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"nl-nov-r\" id=\"nl-nov-r1\" value=\"2025-11-14\" autocomplete=\"off\" tabindex=\"-1\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"nl-nov-et\" id=\"nl-nov-et1\" value=\"\" autocomplete=\"off\" tabindex=\"-1\"><\/div><button data-sitekey=\"6Lc-hRkaAAAAAI84hbB81Jl48pGievR_C_UgHdnY\" data-callback=\"on_submit_nlf_1\" data-action=\"submit\" class=\"g-recaptcha button button-primary after-email\">Sign Up<\/button><\/div><\/div><div class=\"captcha-terms\"><p>This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p><\/div><\/form><script>document.getElementById('nl-nov-st1').value=Date.now();document.getElementById('nl-nov-r1').value='';function on_submit_nlf_1(token) {document.getElementById('nl-nov-et1').value = Date.now();document.getElementById('nlf-1').submit();}<\/script><\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- Promo shortcode end -->\n\n\n\n<p>But one word encapsulates this year\u2019s migratory flight predictions: <em>Whew!<\/em>  In nearly all respects, this year\u2019s breeding success for North American ducks was a close shave.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bird estimates could have been a lot worse. Many waterfowl enthusiasts expected as much. But last spring\u2019s rains across much of the primary waterfowl breeding areas came in just enough time, and there were just enough ducks to take advantage of the water.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be very happy about that, says Jerry Holden, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ducks.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ducks Unlimited<\/a>\u2019s director of operations for its Southern region. Each year, the Wild South checks in with Holden to get his Southern-fried take on what the science says about what skies over Southern duck blinds might look like for the upcoming hunting season. And this year, as always, Holden dishes out his medicine straight: \u201cI think it will be solidly mediocre,\u201d he says. And thank your lucky duck calls for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To derive population estimates of breeding waterfowl, there are two survey areas. The \u201ctraditional survey area\u201d includes the Prairie Pothole Region\u2014the famed \u201cduck factory\u201d\u2014which largely feeds the Central and Mississippi flyways. Separately, the \u201ceastern survey area\u201d generates a breeding population estimate for six common duck species groups in eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., which produce most of the of the birds in the Atlantic Flyway.<\/p><div id=\"div-gpt-ad-4165135\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad mobile inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-4233591\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad tablet inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-6082921\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad desktop inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, breeding duck numbers for 2024 in the traditional survey area were up 5 percent over 2023 numbers, for a total of 33.99 million ducks. That\u2019s the first increase in total surveyed breeding ducks since 2015. Mallards were up 8 percent over 2023, but still lagged behind the species\u2019 long-term average. But given the dry conditions across much of the breeding grounds during early spring, that\u2019s a huge plus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the eastern survey area, mallard numbers dropped 4 percent, and counted wood ducks dropped 10 percent. Meanwhile, green-winged teal had a banner year, up 20 percent from 2023, and black ducks posted a strong showing, up 17 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Drilling down on the details, Holden says, presents more of a mixed picture. \u201cThis is the longest running wildlife survey in the world,\u201d he says, \u201cand it\u2019s highly statistically relevant. But it is not a census.\u201d Consider wigeon. Their numbers increased a whopping 55 percent in the traditional survey area, but Holden tempers his enthusiasm. \u201cA huge change like that often relates to a significant negative number in the past,\u201d he explains. \u201cMy tendency is to look at that figure of wigeon being over the long-term-average figure by 12 percent and say, \u2018Wigeon numbers are pretty much normal.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The numbers also suggest changes that could be coming to next year\u2019s waterfowl seasons. Across the country, one particular species of concern is pintails. These prized ducks were down 11 percent from 2023, and a disappointing 49 percent from the long-term average. But the USFWS has indicated that bag limits for pintails next year will likely increase to three per day. Some scientists think that previous pintail estimates may have been inaccurate, and the Pacific Flyway, a pintail stronghold, still holds high numbers of the birds. Through the federal Adaptive Harvest Management approach, regulations can fluctuate due to population changes, with the ability to fine-tune management. \u201cHarvest isn\u2019t typically harmful to populations,\u201d Holden says. \u201cHabitat, water, food, and refugia matter more. But harvest is something humans can control, so these regulations are a way to learn how these birds might respond to efforts to manage pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And for next year, the early teal season in the Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic flyways will lose seven days. Though green-winged teal are booming, blue-winged teal have fallen below the population threshold for the longer season.&nbsp;<\/p><div id=\"div-gpt-ad-4754082\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad mobile inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-2727039\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad tablet inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-9121050\" class=\"ad-container in-line-ad desktop inContent\" data-ad-size-mapping=\"inContent\" data-ad-path=\"\/68000349\/in-between-modules\" data-ad-sizes=\"[ [336, 280], [300, 250], [300, 50] ]\" data-ad-channel=\"\" data-ad-type=\"In-between Modules\" data-page-terms=\"flagged\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Which goes to show that there is as much art as science in managing waterfowl populations on a continental scale. While hunters can\u2019t draw a solid line between numbers in a database and birds in the sky over the duck blind, these population estimates are useful when considered with the proper perspective. And to be honest, they\u2019re just fun to think about before the season starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But one thing seems assured: With green-winged teal a bright spot across the country, one of the biggest winners of the upcoming duck season could be shotgun shell manufacturers\u2014those speedy<strong> <\/strong>birds are wicked hard to hit.<\/p>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Green-winged teal are up, and some other species also saw increases. But it\u2019s a mixed bag as waterfowlers prepare to head into the blinds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":204917,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-11-11T18:39:26Z","apple_news_api_id":"c7404ccb-55c5-4aab-b693-1846f7cd320a","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-11-11T18:39:26Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/Ax0BMy1XFSqu2kxhG980yCg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,29371],"tags":[29823,93,18358,17767,17645,29363],"authors":[1881],"issue":[],"recipe-type":[],"class_list":["post-204862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sporting","category-the-wild-south","tag-birds","tag-conservation","tag-duck","tag-southern","tag-sporting","tag-the-wild-south","authors-t-edward-nickens"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.3 (Yoast SEO v26.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Duck Season Preview: What the Latest Waterfowl Survey Numbers Mean for Southern Duck Hunters &#8211; Garden &amp; Gun<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Green-winged teal are up, and some other species also saw increases. 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